Dos Bocas: two years to a running cracker

The fluid catalytic cracker is the gasoline heart of Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery at Dos Bocas. Its regenerator runs hot when the unit runs — a signature a satellite reads directly, whatever the press release says.

July 2026 closes at 88% uptime, after 97% in June — the first sustained run in the unit's history. Year to date the cracker averages 49%, against 11% over the same seven months of 2025: activity is up more than fourfold. Over May–July the gap is starker still — 84% versus 16% a year earlier. Before that turn, the series counts 54 start/stop cycles without a single month above 70%.

Bars: share of days the unit ran each month. Hover a lettered month for the event; the record below.

Announced vs. observed

A · September 2024 — observed. The record: a roughly three-month shutdown after crude failed quality specs on water and salt contamination. The orbit: the unit goes dark on 27 August, with only short restart attempts through December.

B · 26 January 2025 — observed, and longer than reported. The record: an electrical failure halts critical units, including the coker and the catalytic unit. The orbit: the FCC stays dark through January and February — roughly eight weeks.

C · April 2025 — observed. The record: a malfunction during electrical load balancing cascades into equipment failures; restart takes over a week. The orbit: a brief run 24–29 April, then down again. The month closes at 17%.

D · June 2025 — discrepancy. The record: gasoline output reported near its highest level, close to 79,000 b/d. The orbit: the FCC at 3% uptime for the month. The reported gasoline is hard to attribute to catalytic cracking — straight-run and reformate can carry a pool, but not at cracker economics.

E · August 2025 — observed. The record: a storm-driven power outage sidelines a key gasoline unit for weeks; Maya crude cargoes divert to Deer Park. The orbit: choppy operation in August, then dark 6–26 September.

F · February–April 2026 — unreported, seen from orbit. The record: nothing we could find. The orbit: shutdown from 18 February to 9 March and again to 19 April — about two months of downtime with no public reporting.

G · 3–5 June 2026 — observed. The record: a cogeneration plant failure forces a shutdown; Pemex restarts within days. The orbit: a short dip on 3–5 June, and the month still closes at 97% — the first sign of a stabilized unit.

SATELLITE IMAGERY · DOS BOCAS · 2026-07-03 — true color; the FCC block sits mid-complex.

One refinery shown. The same series exists for every FCC we monitor.

Imagery: modified Copernicus Sentinel-2 data; Landsat courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey.