◆ 2026-10-27·China
China's crude draw has paused near its lowest level since April 2025
From April to September, China imported 561 million barrels less crude than a year earlier. Refiners absorbed 51% of the shortfall by running less, and onshore tanks gave up another 38%. From August, runs recovered faster than imports and the difference came out of storage, until the week to 9 October. Stocks have edged up since.
Stocks peaked on 22 May and have fallen 162 million barrels since
The 2026 line ran above every recent year until the summer, then crossed below 2025 in August. The week to 9 October read 1,162 million barrels, the lowest since April 2025. The two weeks since added 6.2 million, to 1,168 in the week to 23 October. In October so far, stocks are 57 million barrels below the same month of 2025.
Refiners came back faster than imports
Imports fell from 11.82 Mb/d in March to 7.15 Mb/d in June, 5.04 Mb/d below June 2025. Runs were cut alongside, to 12.52 Mb/d. From August, runs climbed back to 14.04 Mb/d while imports only reached 9.06. Add 4.45 Mb/d of domestic production and the official figures for September still leave about 0.53 Mb/d that had to come from storage.
September was the steepest draw of the year
Our tanks drew in every month from June. August barely moved (−7.5 million barrels) and September fell 53.0. How often each tank is re-read shifts draws between neighbouring months, so the two are best read together: 60 million barrels, about 1.0 Mb/d.
Lower runs covered half the missing barrels, tanks a third
From April to September, imports were 561 million barrels below the same months of 2025. Lower runs covered 288. The tanks covered 213: over these months they built 102.3 million barrels in 2025 and drew 110.2 in 2026. Production and exports moved 13. The remaining 47 is what we cannot see: underground caverns, tanks outside our map, and error in the official figures.
Keeping stocks flat means buying more crude
The October pause means imports caught up with runs, or runs eased. October customs and refinery figures, due in mid-November, will show which. At September runs, holding stocks flat needs 0.5 to 1.8 Mb/d more imports than in September: the low figure comes from the official balance, the high one from the tanks. Refilling to last year's level within a quarter adds about 0.6 Mb/d. Taking runs back to their 2025 pace adds another 1.3. That demand would arrive as Gulf exports recover.
What the figures cover
The stock series combines 3,653 floating-roof tanks at 137 sites, read by Sentinel-1 radar day or night and through cloud, with an estimate of the strategic reserve held in underground caverns, carried at 107 million barrels. No satellite sees into the caverns. Week-to-week changes are firmer than the absolute level.
On 30 September we added 107 tanks, about 75 million barrels of capacity, so levels run higher than in our September note. Both years moved together, so comparisons with 2025 hold.
A tank not re-read in a given week carries its last reading forward. Dalian, the largest site at 93 million barrels, was last read on 4 October, so the latest weeks lean on its earlier level.
September imports are China's preliminary customs figure and may be revised. In normal months the official balance shows about 0.8 Mb/d more crude than our tanks absorb, which is why the figures for the months ahead are given as ranges.